WEEK 1 EARLY CARD

V1: The Board Is Taking Shape

We’re not locking the full $200 card yet.

That’s important.

The lines are out, we’ve done our first deep dive, and we’ve already found some numbers I really like. But it’s still early. Between now and Sunday morning we’re going to get final injury reports, depth chart news, weather, line movement and a much better idea of who is actually going to be on the field and how these games might play out.

So this is V1.

The early card.

Some bets are worth locking now because I think the number is good enough that we risk losing value by waiting. Others are going on the watchlist until Sunday morning.

Then we compare.

What did the line look like when we found it? Where is it Sunday morning? Has anything changed that makes us like the player more or less?

That’s when we build the final $200 card.

The Strategy

This week helped clarify exactly how I want to build these cards.

Normally, when I really like somebody, I have a tendency to put him in EVERYTHING.

Love Jalen Coker?

Great.

Coker goes on 15 parlays.

Then Coker catches three balls for 31 yards and half the card is dead.

That’s not a strategy.

So we’re doing something different.

We’re building a portfolio.

We have a $200 weekly bankroll.

Instead of putting $25 or $50 behind a handful of parlays, we’re going to spread that money across a lot of $10, $5, $2 and even $1 tickets.

That gives us more combinations.

More ways to be right.

And most importantly, one player having a terrible game doesn’t destroy the entire week.

The goal remains the same:

Find deep fucking value. Combine it. Chase huge payouts.

We’re not looking for parlays that turn $10 into $75.

Our tickets should generally have the ability to turn a small bet into $1,000–$25,000+.

And we'll have a few ridiculous $1 tickets with a shot at something much bigger.

If they miss?

Oh well.

We bet small for a reason.

THE EARLY RECEIVING BOARD

These are the numbers that have my attention.

Jalen Coker — 80+ Receiving (+620)

Still one of my favorites.

His normal receiving line is around 30 yards and we're completely ignoring it.

We're betting on the ceiling.

We've already seen Coker produce a monster game, and I love the matchup against Chicago.

I also like his Anytime TD at +290, but I like the yardage considerably more.

EARLY PLAY: Coker 80+ +620

The important change is that Coker isn't going on everything.

We're probably looking at roughly 25% of the bankroll ultimately requiring Coker rather than 50%.

If he goes off, we'll have plenty of tickets alive.

If he doesn't?

We move on.

Quentin Johnston — 100+ Receiving (+930)

This number has already started moving.

We saw +1000 earlier.

Then +930.

That's exactly why we're tracking these things during the week.

QJ doesn't need 10 catches. He needs a few explosive plays.

We're going straight for 100.

EARLY PLAY: QJ 100+ +930

Michael Wilson — 100+ Receiving (+1100)

One of my favorite numbers on the board.

Wilson already had a 1,000-yard season and finished last year playing some of his best football.

Now we're getting 11-to-1 on 100 yards.

The interesting part is that Wilson and QJ are playing each other.

Could both hit?

Absolutely.

But we're mostly going to treat them as different branches.

Some tickets get QJ.

Some get Wilson.

We don't need Arizona–Los Angeles to save the entire card.

EARLY PLAY: Wilson 100+ +1100

I also like:

Michael Wilson Anytime TD +330

Two different ways to play him.

De'Zhaun Stribling — 100+ Receiving (+980)

This is the Thursday play.

And I'm getting more aggressive with it.

Stribling showed enough during the preseason, the opportunity is there, and we're getting almost 10-to-1 on the breakout.

EARLY PLAY: Stribling 100+ +980

We're planning roughly $20 of the $200 bankroll around Stribling.

But here's the important part:

We're not betting $20 on one Stribling parlay.

We're going to spread that $20 across several different tickets.

Something like:

$5 — Stribling / Goedert TD / QJ

$5 — Stribling / Dart TD / Wilson

$5 — Stribling / Coker / Goedert TD

Then a few smaller $1–$2 bombs using T-Mac, Burden, Golden, Likely, McBride and others.

Why?

Because if Stribling goes for 105 yards Thursday night, we enter Sunday with multiple live tickets carrying a +980 leg that's already finished.

That's the dream.

Now we're sweating completely different Sunday combinations where the hardest leg may already be in the bank.

And if Stribling catches three balls for 27 yards?

Fine.

We lost about $20.

We still have roughly $180 worth of Sunday action.

That's exactly how I want to use the early game.

THE ROTATION

These are players I like, but they're not necessarily going to get the same exposure as the four above.

Matthew Golden — 80+ (+551)

I prefer Golden's upside price to taking a shorter Jayden Reed number.

Golden 80+ gives us another legitimate 5-to-1 type multiplier.

WATCH: Golden 80+ +551

Tetairoa McMillan — 100+ (+497)

T-Mac gives us another way into Carolina–Chicago.

Coker is my preferred value.

But if Coker doesn't have the monster game, maybe T-Mac does.

That's exactly why both belong in the portfolio.

WATCH: T-Mac 100+ +497

Luther Burden — 100+ (+581)

Same game.

Different team.

Different outcome.

This is a pure breakout bet.

I'm not pretending Burden going for 100 yards is likely.

It's +581 because it isn't likely.

The question is whether his actual chances are better than the number suggests.

I think they might be.

WATCH: Burden 100+ +581

Wan'Dale Robinson

Wan'Dale remains in the rotation, but I'm not nearly as aggressive here as I am with Coker, QJ or Wilson.

I want him on some tickets.

I don't want him determining our week.

WATCHLIST.

De'Von Achane — 80+ Receiving

This is exactly what the bottom of the card is for.

Crazy outcome.

Crazy price.

Tiny wager.

Achane isn't going on our $10 tickets.

He can absolutely appear on some $1 and $2 bombs.

LONGSHOT ONLY.

THE TOUCHDOWN BOARD

This is where the receiving moonshots get really interesting.

We don't need three different guys to go for 100 yards on every ticket.

Sometimes we take two big receiving numbers and connect them with one touchdown.

Dallas Goedert — Anytime TD (+220)

One of my favorite plays on the entire board.

I also like Goedert 60+ receiving at +318.

But I like the touchdown more.

One red-zone catch.

That's it.

And +220 is enough to dramatically increase these parlays.

CORE TD: Goedert +220

He'll have significant exposure on the card, but even here we're going to be careful not to put him on everything.

Jaxson Dart — Anytime TD (+180)

Love it.

Dart ran for nine touchdowns last year.

We're not hoping for some random quarterback sneak.

His legs are legitimately part of the offense.

CORE TD: Dart +180

Isaiah Likely — Anytime TD (+285)

Another one I really like.

Dart and Likely give us two different ways to attack the same game.

Some tickets get Dart.

Some get Likely.

CORE TD: Likely +285

Trey McBride — Anytime TD (+200)

Great player.

Huge red-zone role.

Useful connecting piece.

We just have to watch how much Arizona exposure we're creating because Michael Wilson is already one of our favorite receiving plays.

ROTATION TD: McBride +200

Michael Wilson — Anytime TD (+330)

I like both Wilson bets.

100+ yards +1100

and

TD +330.

Most tickets will get one or the other.

VALUE TD: Wilson +330

Mark Andrews — Anytime TD (+190)

Still in.

I just like Goedert, Dart and Likely more at the moment.

ROTATION TD: Andrews +190

Malik Willis — Anytime TD (+340)

This is our weird one.

And I love having a few weird ones.

A quarterback with legitimate rushing ability at +340 is exactly the kind of thing I want attached to a $1 or $2 moonshot.

He's not a core play.

He's a bomb multiplier.

LONGSHOT TD: Willis +340

HOW THE FINAL CARD WILL WORK

Right now I'm thinking roughly:

8 × $10 bets = $80

16 × $5 bets = $80

15 × $2 bets = $30

10 × $1 bets = $10

49 different tickets. $200 total.

That's a lot of swings.

And that's intentional.

The $10 bets will be our strongest combinations.

The $5 tickets will be the heart of the card.

The $2 bets will start chasing $10,000–$25,000+ payouts.

And the $1 tickets?

Those can get completely stupid.

A couple will be built to chase the maximum payout.

Why not?

It's a dollar.

WHAT WE'RE LOCKING EARLY

The big exception to waiting is Stribling, because he plays Thursday.

We're going to build approximately $20 worth of tickets containing Stribling 100+ at +980.

Those tickets will connect him to several different Sunday outcomes.

I may also lock a few other numbers early if I think the market is moving against us.

I'm watching especially closely:

Coker 80+ +620

QJ 100+ +930

Michael Wilson 100+ +1100

Goedert TD +220

Wilson TD +330

If those prices start getting crushed, I'd rather have some exposure locked at the better number.

Remember:

Once the bet is placed, our odds are locked.

If we get Wilson +1100 and he's sitting +750 Sunday morning, we own the +1100 ticket.

That's part of the edge we're trying to find.

WHAT WE'RE WAITING FOR

Most of the $200 card will not be locked until Sunday morning.

There's too much information still coming.

We want:

Final injury reports.

Inactive lists and depth-chart changes.

Weather.

Offensive line news.

Receiver availability.

Any unexpected role changes.

Line movement.

And most importantly, we get another chance to challenge our own assumptions.

Maybe we love Coker tonight.

Sunday morning something changes and we don't.

Great.

We adjust.

Maybe a player sitting at +700 tonight moves to +1100.

Now he's interesting.

Maybe one of our +900 plays gets hammered to +550.

Now we have to decide whether the value is gone.

The player isn't the bet.

The player + the number is the bet.

That's an important distinction.