week 1 game board
Before we ever pick a player, we pick the games.
Every week, we work backwards from the betting market. We look at the spread and game total to determine how many points each team is expected to score. Then we layer in offensive production, defensive strengths and weaknesses, expected touchdowns, yardage opportunities and likely game script.
The goal isn't to predict the final score perfectly.
It's to answer a much more important question:
Where should the touchdowns and yards come from?
That gives us our map before we build The 21 and eventually the $200 Card.
One note about week 1. This is always a crap shoot. We have no data yet about what this season holds, the only thing we can do is reference last year’s team stats and then adjust for major signings, new players, key loses and training camp news.
Nevertheless, we’re still going to bet it full steam ahead and uncover some hidden gems and some value picks where we can come out the gate strong and hit our first week. And if not, we learn some things and get better for next week.
Let's cash.
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WEDNESDAY NIGHT
NEW ENGLAND @ SEATTLE 8:20pm
SEA -3.5 | O/U 43.5
Market Projection: SEA 23.5 | NE 20
TD Map: NE ~2.2 | SEA ~2.8
Best TD Side: SEA
Best Yardage Side: SEA Pass
This is a fascinating opener because the raw offensive numbers look better than the betting environment.
New England averaged 391.2 yards per game, including 262.3 through the air. Seattle wasn't far behind at 362.3 total yards.
The problem?
These defenses were excellent.
Seattle allowed only 285.9 total yards per game, while New England allowed 295.2. Neither defense surrendered even 194 passing yards per game.
That creates an immediate warning for aggressive receiving yard overs. We're taking two productive passing offenses and running them into defenses that have historically suppressed passing production.
There is one interesting wrinkle. Both defenses were even better against the run. Seattle allowed just 91.9 rushing yards per game and New England 101.7.
So if either offense is going to move the football consistently, it may have to happen through the air.
That's good for passing volume, but not necessarily huge individual yardage.
Seattle gets our slight preference because the market gives them the higher implied total and home field. But this isn't a game where we need to force action just because it's the season opener.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #11/16
ATTACK RATING: 🟡 SELECTIVE
THE READ: Seattle passing game if the price is right. Be careful chasing huge yardage numbers.
THURSDAY NIGHT
SAN FRANCISCO @ LA RAMS 8:35pm
in Melbourne, Australia
LAR -3.5 | O/U 48.5
Market Projection: LAR 26 | SF 22.5
TD Map: SF ~2.6 | LAR ~3.5
Best TD Side: LAR
Best Yardage Side: LAR Pass
Now we're talking.
The Rams averaged an NFL best 30.5 points per game, 403.5 total yards and 276.9 passing yards. San Francisco averaged 25.7 points and 360.9 yards.
Unlike NE/SEA, neither defense completely scares us away.
San Francisco allowed 340.2 yards per game and ranked just 25th against the pass at 232.4 passing yards allowed.
That's exactly where Los Angeles wants to attack.
The market agrees. L.A.'s implied total sits around 26 points, giving us roughly 3 to 4 Rams touchdowns to hunt.
San Francisco is still live offensively, especially because this is only a 3.5 point spread. A competitive game keeps both offenses involved deeper into the fourth quarter.
The international setting in Melbourne adds an unusual variable, but the underlying offensive environment is too strong to ignore.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #4/16
ATTACK RATING:🔥 ATTACK
THE READ: Rams TDs and Rams receiving yards are firmly on the menu.
SUNDAY 1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY @ CINCINNATI
CIN -4 | O/U 50.5
Market Projection: CIN 27.25 | TB 23.25
TD Map: TB ~2.6 | CIN ~3.5
Best TD Side: BOTH
Best Yardage Side: TB Rush / CIN Pass
Here we go.
This is exactly the kind of game we're looking for.
A 50.5 total, relatively close spread and two teams projected above 23 points creates touchdown opportunities on both sides.
The matchup makes Cincinnati especially interesting.
The Bengals averaged 249.6 passing yards per game, seventh in football, while Tampa allowed 238.2 passing yards per game, ranking 27th.
That's a clean offensive strength versus defensive weakness.
On the other side, Cincinnati's defense was a problem. They allowed 28.9 points per game, 380.9 total yards and an NFL worst 147.1 rushing yards.
That makes Tampa's rushing attack particularly interesting.
This isn't just a Bengals game.
It's a both sides game.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #2/16
ATTACK RATING:🔥🔥 ELITE ATTACK
THE READ: One of our best parlay environments of Week 1. Cincinnati receiving. Tampa rushing. TDs on both sides.
New Orleans @ Detroit
DET -6.5 | O/U 50.5
Market Projection: DET 28.5 | NO 22
TD Map: NO ~2.3 | DET ~4.0
Best TD Side: DET
Best Yardage Side: DET Pass
This is one of our favorite Anytime TD environments on the entire board.
Detroit averaged 28.3 points, 388.7 yards and an impressive 268.6 passing yards per game.
New Orleans' defense is respectable, particularly against the pass, but the market is still projecting Detroit for roughly 28.5 points.
That's the important number.
We're essentially being handed a four touchdown projection.
That's gold when we're hunting Anytime TD value.
The bigger spread does introduce some game script risk. If Detroit gets ahead early, passing volume could decline later in the game.
That makes us like Detroit TDs even more than huge receiving yardage overs.
New Orleans could also be forced into increased passing volume if they're chasing Detroit.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #3/16
ATTACK RATING:🔥🔥 ELITE ATTACK
THE READ: Detroit Anytime TDs are one of the strongest hunting grounds of the week.
CHIcago @ CARolina
CHI -2.5 | O/U 47.5
Market Projection: CHI 25 | CAR 22.5
TD Map: CHI ~3.3 | CAR ~2.8
Best TD Side: CHI
Best Yardage Side: CHI Rush
This game quietly checks a lot of boxes.
Chicago averaged 379.2 yards per game, sixth in football, while scoring 25.9 points.
The biggest edge comes on the ground.
Chicago averaged an impressive 144.5 rushing yards per game, third in the NFL. Carolina allowed 123.3.
The Bears should be able to establish the run and sustain drives.
More importantly, the spread is only 2.5.
That's exactly what we like.
Instead of projecting an early blowout and dead second half, the market expects Carolina to hang around. That potentially keeps Chicago aggressive for four quarters.
Carolina's offense doesn't excite us nearly as much.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #5/16
ATTACK RATING:🔥 ATTACK
THE READ: Chicago is the side. Bears rushing props and TD candidates deserve attention.
BALtimore @ INDianapolis
BAL -3.5 | O/U 47.5
Market Projection: BAL 25.5 | IND 22
TD Map: BAL ~3.2 | IND ~2.7
Best TD Side: BAL
Best Yardage Side: IND Pass
This one has two very different paths.
Baltimore averaged 156.6 rushing yards per game, second in football, but only 192.8 passing yards.
Indianapolis was almost the opposite, producing 240.3 passing yards per game.
That creates a fairly clean roadmap.
If we're hunting Baltimore, we're looking toward the rushing attack and rushing TD equity.
If we're hunting Indianapolis, the passing game is more interesting.
The defenses are solid but not dominant overall. Both allowed roughly 350 yards per game.
And with Baltimore only favored by 3.5, we're expecting a competitive game.
That keeps both sides alive.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #8/16
ATTACK RATING: 🟢 GOOD
THE READ: Baltimore rushing TDs. Indianapolis receiving yards. Don't force anything outside those lanes.
BUFfalo @ HOUston
BUF -2.5 | O/U 44.5
Market Projection: BUF 23.5 | HOU 21
TD Map: BUF ~2.9 | HOU ~2.5
Best TD Side: BUF
Best Yardage Side: SELECTIVE
This is where the model keeps us disciplined.
Buffalo's offense was excellent: 393.8 yards per game, third in football, and an NFL best 159.6 rushing yards.
Normally we'd be salivating.
Houston's defense changes everything.
The Texans allowed only 17.4 points and 277.2 yards per game. They were sixth against the pass and fourth against the run.
Buffalo's defense was also elite against the pass, allowing just 156.9 passing yards per game.
So while there are fantastic players in this game, the matchup itself doesn't scream parlay gold.
This is exactly why we analyze games before blindly betting player projections.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #10/16
ATTACK RATING:🟡 SELECTIVE
THE READ: Buffalo is still the preferred side, but individual value needs to earn its way onto the card.
CLEveland @ JAcksonville
JAX -7.5 | O/U 40.5
Market Projection: JAX 24 | CLE 16.5
TD Map: JAX ~3.0 | CLE ~1.8
Best TD Side: JAX
Best Yardage Side: JAX Selective
This game is almost entirely about Jacksonville.
Cleveland averaged only 16.4 points and 282.4 yards per game, ranking 31st in both categories.
Now put that offense against a Jacksonville defense that allowed just 19.8 points per game and an NFL best 85.6 rushing yards.
Not attractive.
Jacksonville has a better opportunity, but Cleveland's defense was quietly strong statistically, allowing only 283.6 total yards and 167.2 passing yards per game.
That's why the total is only 40.5 despite Jacksonville being a big favorite.
The Jaguars can absolutely produce TDs.
We just don't love this as a yardage environment.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #12/16
ATTACK RATING:🟡 SELECTIVE
THE READ: Jacksonville TDs only if we find value. Cleveland is mostly off the board.
ATLanta @ PITtsburgh
PIT -3 | O/U 42.5
Market Projection: PIT 22.75 | ATL 19.75
TD Map: ATL ~2.3 | PIT ~2.7
Best TD Side: PIT, slight edge
Best Yardage Side: ATL Pass
Not every game needs to become a bet.
Atlanta and Pittsburgh both enter with relatively modest implied totals, and neither offense jumps off the page.
The one interesting mismatch is Atlanta's passing game.
Pittsburgh allowed 243.9 passing yards per game, ranking 29th, while being much better against the run.
That naturally funnels Atlanta toward the air.
But a 42.5 total and sub 23 point projections on both sides limits our overall enthusiasm.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #13/16
ATTACK RATING:🟡 SELECTIVE
THE READ: Atlanta receiving is the interesting angle. Otherwise, don't force it.
NY Jets @ TENnessee
TEN -1.5 | O/U 39.5
Market Projection: TEN 20.5 | NYJ 19
TD Map: NYJ ~2.1 | TEN ~2.3
Best TD Side: NONE
Best Yardage Side: NOTHING OBVIOUS
And here is our first true landmine.
The Jets averaged 17.6 points and 287.1 yards per game.
Tennessee averaged 16.7 points and 284.1 yards.
That's 29th and 30th territory.
Neither team converted third downs effectively. Neither passing attack produced much. And neither side is projected to even reach 21 points.
Could someone score a touchdown? Of course.
But we don't need to predict every touchdown.
We need to find the best value among 16 games.
There are simply better places to spend our money.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #16/16
ATTACK RATING:🔴 LANDMINE
THE READ: Avoid unless The 21 uncovers an absolutely ridiculous price.
SUNDAY 4:25 PM
ARIzona @ LA Chargers
LAC -9.5 | O/U 47.5
Market Projection: LAC 28.5 | ARI 19
TD Map: ARI ~2.2 | LAC ~3.8
Best TD Side: LAC
Best Yardage Side: LAC Rush
This is another fantastic one sided TD environment.
The Chargers are projected for 28.5 points.
That's nearly four touchdowns.
Arizona's defense allowed 28.7 points per game, ranking 29th, along with 357.7 yards.
Meanwhile, the Chargers controlled the football for 32:45 per game, second in the NFL.
That's potentially a nightmare combination for Arizona.
The one concern is obvious: LAC -9.5.
If the Chargers dominate early, late passing volume could disappear.
So we're more interested in Chargers touchdowns and rushing production than massive passing yard totals.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #6/16
ATTACK RATING:🔥 ATTACK
THE READ: Chargers TDs. Chargers rushing. Beware of blowout induced passing suppression.
WAShington @ PHIladelphia
PHI -4.5 | O/U 45.5
Market Projection: PHI 25 | WAS 20.5
TD Map: WAS ~2.6 | PHI ~3.2
Best TD Side: PHI
Best Yardage Side: Rushing
Washington's defense is what immediately gets our attention.
They allowed an NFL worst 384.3 total yards per game, including 242.5 through the air and 141.8 on the ground.
Philadelphia gets the matchup advantage.
The Eagles are projected around 25 points, which gives us roughly three touchdowns to work with.
Washington also averaged 134.7 rushing yards per game, fourth in football, so there may be ground game opportunities on both sides.
Philadelphia's defense, however, is substantially better than Washington's.
That makes this a fairly straightforward lean.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #7/16
ATTACK RATING:🟢 GOOD
THE READ: Philadelphia is the preferred TD side. Rushing opportunities deserve a closer look.
Green Bay @ MINnesota
MIN -1.5 | O/U 45.5
Market Projection: MIN 23.5 | GB 22
TD Map: GB ~2.6 | MIN ~2.9
Best TD Side: BALANCED
Best Yardage Side: GB Rush
This is a tricky divisional matchup.
Minnesota's defense was excellent, allowing just 282.6 total yards per game, third in football, and an absurdly low 158.5 passing yards per game.
That immediately downgrades aggressive Green Bay receiving overs.
The Packers may have better luck attacking on the ground.
Minnesota's offense is the bigger question. They averaged only 297 yards per game and ranked 30th in passing.
The good news is the spread.
At only 1.5 points, the market expects this thing to stay close.
So we like the competitive environment more than we like either individual offense.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #9/16
ATTACK RATING: 🟢 GOOD
THE READ: Ground game before passing game. Stay selective with receiving overs.
MIAmi @ Las Vegas
LV -3.5 | O/U 40.5
Market Projection: LV 22 | MIA 18.5
TD Map: MIA ~2.2 | LV ~2.6
Best TD Side: LV, slight edge
Best Yardage Side: MIA Rush
The numbers aren't pretty.
Las Vegas averaged an NFL worst 14.2 points and 272.5 yards per game.
Miami wasn't much better, averaging 20.4 points and 315.6 yards.
Neither passing attack reached 200 yards per game.
The one potential opening is Miami's rushing attack against a Raiders defense that allowed 116.8 rushing yards.
But we're still dealing with a game carrying a 40.5 total.
This is exactly the type of environment where a sexy player name can tempt us into a bad parlay leg.
Don't fall for it.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #15/16
ATTACK RATING:🔴 LANDMINE
THE READ: Miami rushing is the only area worth investigating. Otherwise fade.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
DALlas @ NY Giants 8:20
DAL -2.5 | O/U 49.5
Market Projection: DAL 26 | NYG 23.5
TD Map: DAL ~3.2 | NYG ~2.8
Best TD Side: BOTH
Best Yardage Side: BOTH
And here it is.
Our #1 game environment of Week 1.
Dallas averaged an NFL best 404.2 yards per game, including an NFL best 278.5 passing yards.
Now look at the defense they're facing.
The Giants allowed 359.5 total yards per game and ranked 31st against the run.
But Dallas' defense might be even more interesting.
The Cowboys allowed an NFL worst 30.1 points per game, 377 total yards and 251.5 passing yards.
That means we have offensive opportunities both ways.
Then add a 49.5 total and a spread of only 2.5.
This is exactly what we're hunting.
High total.
Close spread.
Multiple projected touchdowns on both sides.
Bad defenses.
Strong Dallas offensive production.
And four quarters of potential offense if the game stays close.
The only caveat is that this is Sunday Night Football, so we don't want the entire card depending on it. Our portfolio rules still matter.
But as an individual game environment?
This is as good as it gets.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #1/16
ATTACK RATING:🔥🔥 ELITE ATTACK
THE READ: TDs. Receiving yards. Rushing opportunities. Both teams are live.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Denver @ Kansas City 8:15
KC -2.5 | O/U 43.5
Market Projection: KC 23 | DEN 20.5
TD Map: DEN ~2.4 | KC ~2.7
Best TD Side: KC, slight edge
Best Yardage Side: TOUGH
This looks like a great football game.
It doesn't necessarily look like a great Nicks Picks game.
Denver's defense allowed just 18.3 points and 278.2 yards per game, ranking third and second respectively.
Kansas City wasn't far behind, allowing 19.3 points and 301.5 yards.
Both defenses were also strong against the pass.
So we're looking at two respectable offenses running directly into two very good defenses.
The close spread helps.
The 43.5 total doesn't.
And because this is Monday night, we'd need an especially strong value to justify leaving significant money alive until the final game of the week.
NICK'S PICKS GAME RANK: #14/16
ATTACK RATING:⚠️ CAUTION
THE READ: Great football game. Difficult prop environment. Don't force a Monday night sweat just because it's Monday night.
Recap: the Week 1 Game Board
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After breaking down all 16 games, here's where we want to hunt:
🔥 ELITE: DAL @ NYG, TB @ CIN, NO @ DET
🔥 ATTACK: SF @ LAR, CHI @ CAR, ARI @ LAC
🟢 GOOD: WAS @ PHI, BAL @ IND, GB @ MIN
🟡 SELECTIVE: BUF @ HOU, NE @ SEA, CLE @ JAX, ATL @ PIT
⚠️ CAUTION: DEN @ KC