Week 1 picks are in!

Nicks Picks Week 1: 49 Bets. $200. Let’s Ride.

This is it.

We started with the games.

We built The 21.

Now it’s time to put actual money behind it.

THE BANKROLL

$10 bets: $80
$5 bets: $80
$2 bets: $30
$1 moonshots: $10

TOTAL: $200

I’m not trying to hit 49 bets.

I’m trying to hit the right one.

Let’s go.

💰 THE $10 BETS

These are the foundation.

Three legs. Our strongest combinations. No need to turn these into six leg lottery tickets just to manufacture a bigger payout.

#1 — $10 → $501

Goedert TD
Wilson 70+
Willis TD

#2 — $10 → $560

Goedert TD
QJ 70+
Coker 70+

#3 — $10 → $409

Wilson 70+
Watson 70+
Kincaid TD

#4 — $10 → $444

QJ 70+
Willis TD
Andrews TD

#5 — $10 → $546

Coker 70+
McBride TD
Kincaid TD

#6 — $10 → $302

Goedert TD
Wilson 70+
Watson 70+

#7 — $10 → $527

QJ 70+
Coker 70+
LaPorta 60+

#8 — $10 → $347

Willis TD
Goedert TD
Andrews TD

$80 wagered.

💵 THE $5 BETS

Four legs.

This is where we start adding Etienne, Parker Washington and some of the bigger multipliers.

#9 — $5 → $1,882

Goedert TD
QJ 70+
Etienne 40+
Kincaid TD

#10 — $5 → $1,032

Wilson 70+
Willis TD
Coker 70+
Andrews TD

#11 — $5 → $777

Goedert TD
Watson 70+
Etienne 40+
McBride TD

#12 — $5 → $1,369

QJ 70+
Coker 70+
Kincaid TD
Parker Washington 80+

#13 — $5 → $1,593

Wilson 70+
Willis TD
Etienne 40+
LaPorta TD

#14 — $5 → $477

Goedert TD
Coker 70+
Watson 70+
Andrews TD

#15 — $5 → $2,428

QJ 70+
Willis TD
Etienne 40+
Kincaid TD

#16 — $5 → $633

Wilson 70+
Parker Washington 80+
Goedert TD
Andrews TD

#17 — $5 → $1,897

Coker 70+
Etienne 40+
McBride TD
Willis TD

#18 — $5 → $621

QJ 70+
Watson 70+
Goedert TD
Kincaid TD

#19 — $5 → $1,883

Wilson 70+
Coker 70+
Etienne 40+
Andrews TD

#20 — $5 → $604

Goedert TD
Parker Washington 80+
Willis TD
LaPorta TD

#21 — $5 → $1,730

QJ 70+
Etienne 40+
McBride TD
Kincaid TD

#22 — $5 → $545

Wilson 70+
Watson 70+
Willis TD
Andrews TD

#23 — $5 → $1,863

Goedert TD
Coker 70+
Etienne 40+
Parker Washington 80+

#24 — $5 → $2000

TBD!

$80 wagered across this tier.

🚀 THE big payouts

Now we start swinging.

Five legs. Thirty bucks total.

This is where Wilson 100+, QJ 100+, Etienne 50+ and Henry 40+ start showing up.

#25 — $2 → $2,761

Goedert TD + Wilson 100+ + Willis TD + Watson 70+ + Kincaid TD

#26 — $2 → $5,844

QJ 100+ + Coker 70+ + Etienne 40+ + Andrews TD + McBride TD

#27 — $2 → $11,183

Goedert TD + QJ 100+ + Henry 40+ + Watson 70+ + Kincaid TD

#28 — $2 → $7,909

Wilson 100+ + Coker 70+ + Willis TD + Etienne 40+ + LaPorta TD

#29 — $2 → $4,020

Goedert TD + QJ 70+ + Parker 80+ + Henry 40+ + Andrews TD

#30 — $2 → $11,223

Wilson 100+ + Etienne 50+ + Willis TD + Kincaid TD + Watson 70+

#31 — $2 → $6,470

Goedert TD + Coker 70+ + QJ 100+ + Etienne 40+ + McBride TD

#32 — $2 → $3,572

Wilson 70+ + Henry 40+ + Parker 80+ + Andrews TD + LaPorta TD

#33 — $2 → $6,502

QJ 100+ + Willis TD + Watson 70+ + Etienne 40+ + Kincaid TD

#34 — $2 → $14,107

Goedert TD + Wilson 100+ + Coker 70+ + Henry 40+ + Andrews TD

#35 — $2 → $4,107

QJ 70+ + Etienne 50+ + Parker 80+ + Willis TD + McBride TD

#36 — $2 → $1,864

Goedert TD + Wilson 100+ + Watson 70+ + LaPorta TD + Kincaid TD

#37 — $2 → $12,969

Coker 70+ + QJ 100+ + Henry 40+ + Andrews TD + McBride TD

#38 — $2 → $3,969

Wilson 70+ + Etienne 50+ + Willis TD + Parker 80+ + LaPorta TD

#39 — $2 → $9,535

Goedert TD + QJ 100+ + Coker 70+ + Etienne 40+ + Kincaid TD

$30 wagered.

Now you can see the system.

We’re risking two bucks for shots at $5K, $10K and $14K.

🌕 THE $1 MOONSHOTS

Ten dollars total.

Six legs each.

No pretending these are safe.

#40 — $1 → $22,366

Goedert TD + Wilson 100+ + Willis TD + Henry 40+ + Watson 70+ + Kincaid TD

#41 — $1 → $18,207

QJ 100+ + Coker 70+ + Etienne 50+ + Andrews TD + Parker 80+ + McBride TD

#42 — $1 → $11,742

Goedert TD + Wilson 100+ + Etienne 50+ + Watson 70+ + LaPorta TD + Kincaid TD

#43 — $1 → $25,938

QJ 100+ + Willis TD + Henry 40+ + Coker 70+ + Andrews TD + McBride TD

#44 — $1 → $21,538

Goedert TD + Wilson 100+ + Parker 80+ + Henry 40+ + Willis TD + LaPorta TD

#45 — $1 → $17,912

QJ 100+ + Etienne 50+ + Watson 70+ + Kincaid TD + Coker 70+ + Andrews TD

#46 — $1 → $18,566

Goedert TD + Wilson 100+ + Etienne 50+ + Parker 80+ + McBride TD + Kincaid TD

#47 — $1 → $12,987

QJ 100+ + Willis TD + Henry 40+ + Watson 70+ + LaPorta TD + Andrews TD

#48 — $1 → $30,153

Goedert TD + Wilson 100+ + Coker 70+ + Henry 40+ + Kincaid TD + McBride TD

#49 — $1 → $15,130

QJ 100+ + Etienne 50+ + Parker 80+ + Willis TD + Andrews TD + LaPorta TD

Ten bucks. Ten shots.

If Derrick Henry catches 40 yards worth of passes and one of these tickets is still alive?

Things could get interesting.

HOW WE’RE SPREADING THE $200

This is the part of the system I probably care about most.

I don’t want my favorite player on every ticket. If he busts, the entire card shouldn’t die with him.

So here’s our exposure across the current card:

Player / Bankroll Exposure / Tickets

Dallas Goedert

47.0%

23 of 49

Quentin Johnston

40.5%

22 of 49

Michael Wilson

39.5%

21 of 49

Malik Willis

38.5%

20 of 49

Jalen Coker

38.0%

19 of 49

Dalton Kincaid

33.5%

19 of 49

Travis Etienne

30.5%

21 of 49

Mark Andrews

30.0%

17 of 49

Christian Watson

27.0%

15 of 49

Trey McBride

18.5%

12 of 49

Sam LaPorta

18.5%

12 of 49

Parker Washington

16.0%

12 of 49

Derrick Henry

7.5%

10 of 49

Goedert is our highest conviction play, so he’s appropriately our highest exposure at 47%.

Then QJ and Wilson sit around 40%. That’s exactly where I want them. They’re two of my favorite plays, but neither one can single handedly wipe out the entire card.

And look at Henry.

He’s actually on 10 different tickets, but only 7.5% of our bankroll is attached to them. That’s the beauty of putting the crazy +1520 prop on the $1 and $2 bombs instead of forcing it onto our biggest bets.

More conviction = more dollars.
More risk = less dollars.
More upside = bigger payouts.

WHY THE PAYOUTS CHANGE SO FAST

This is the entire Nicks Picks concept.

Our $10 tickets only need three things to happen.

Then we add a fourth leg and reduce the wager to $5.

Five legs gets $2.

Six legs gets $1.

We’re not betting more money because the payout looks good.

We’re betting less money as the outcome becomes harder to hit.

That’s bankroll management.

And if one of the $1 or $2 combinations gets weird?

That’s where the asymmetric upside lives.

THE FINAL SCORECARD

8 × $10 = $80
16 × $5 = $80
15 × $2 = $30
10 × $1 = $10

$200 TOTAL

49 BETS

BIGGEST ESTIMATED PAYOUT: $30,153

We don’t need 49 winners.

We need the right combination.

Small bets. Big wins.

Let’s ride.

Odds and payouts shown are estimates calculated from the individual DraftKings prices available when the card was built. Actual parlay odds and payouts may differ when entered and can change before kickoff. Final bets are subject to injury and lineup news. Bet responsibly. 21+ where applicable.