Week 2 Early Player Targets

The Week 2 Game Board is done.

Now it’s time to start building the player pool.

It’s only Thursday, so this is not the final Week 2 card. There are still too many injuries, questionable tags and missing yardage markets to lock everything in.

But there’s one game tonight that we absolutely want exposure to.

Detroit at Buffalo.

This was our #1 ranked game of Week 2, and I think Buffalo has a chance to put up a big number.

So we’re starting there.

One Thing To Remember This Week

Week 1 box scores create overreactions.

The player who exploded gets all the attention the following week.

Sometimes that means the better value shifts to the player who quietly kept the volume but didn’t find the end zone.

We’re going to keep that in mind throughout Week 2.

Secondly, remember the NIcks Picks Value System

We don’t hunt obvious picks.

Yes, anyone can tell you the Jahmyr Gibbs (-275) and Josh Allen (-140) are probably going to score.

Especially Josh Allen, he steals all the goal line touchdowns.

But anyway, a Gibbs + Allen TD Parlay pays $24 on a $10 bet.

Meaning you only win $14, to risk $10.

BORING

Not worth it.

No value.

We want to find odds that vegas might have missed and parlay a few ‘long shots’ into big scores.

THURSDAY NIGHT TARGETS

Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD +180

We’re going right back to the well.

Kincaid had a monster Week 1 and continues to look like a major piece of Buffalo’s offense.

At +180, I still think we’re getting a very playable number.

Early Rating: CORE

Kincaid Receiving Ladder

His main receiving number is around 53 yards.

The alternate numbers are where things get interesting:

80+ Receiving Yards: +249

90+ Receiving Yards: +355

If Buffalo really opens this game up, I like the 80+ number quite a bit.

Khalil Shakir Anytime TD +225

Shakir saw plenty of opportunities in Week 1 but never found the end zone.

That’s exactly the type of player I like looking at the following week.

Lots of involvement.

No touchdown.

And now we’re getting better than 2:1.

Early Rating: STRONG VALUE

Shakir Receiving Ladder

His main number is around 45 yards.

But again, we’re looking for the asymmetric payout.

80+ Receiving Yards: +430

90+ Receiving Yards: +650

Those aren’t core plays.

Those are exactly the kind of legs that can turn a small parlay into something interesting.

Sam LaPorta Anytime TD +225

I like LaPorta.

I just don’t like him quite as much as the Buffalo side tonight.

My concern is simply game script.

If Buffalo controls this game, Detroit may have fewer clean scoring opportunities than we want.

Still, +225 for one of Detroit’s best red-zone weapons deserves consideration.

Early Rating: SECONDARY

Those are much more compelling

Now that same $10 bet on a Kinkaid and LaPorta anytime TD pays: $80.

$70 profit

Now we’re getting better.

The play is to still put a few of these longer shots together in efforts of hitting something big.

Get rich slowly. Not here, we pound get rich quick numbers.

SUNDAY TD TARGETS

Justin Jefferson +155

Not a massive multiplier, but this matchup is exactly why Minnesota ranked so highly on our Week 2 Game Board.

Chicago wants to score.

They haven’t shown much interest in stopping anybody else from scoring.

Jefferson remains the centerpiece of the Minnesota passing attack.

Early Rating: CORE

T.J. Hockenson +330

This one really jumped out.

At +330, we’re getting significantly better value than Jefferson while still attacking the same game.

Hockenson was involved in Week 1 and remains one of Minnesota’s best scoring options.

I like this significantly more than Jordan Addison right now.

Early Rating: FAVORITE VALUE

Jordan Addison +275

This is why we look beyond the odds.

The number looks attractive.

The Week 1 involvement does not.

Only two targets.

Zero catches.

That doesn’t mean Addison can’t score this week, but we have better options in the same offense.

For now:

PASS

Kalif Raymond +275

Raymond might be one of the more interesting Week 2 names.

He saw a ton of Week 1 involvement and finished with 84 receiving yards.

Everyone naturally pays attention to Rome Odunze and Luther Burden.

That could leave opportunities elsewhere.

Early Rating: VALUE

His yardage ladders may actually be even more interesting:

40+ Receiving Yards: +213

50+ Receiving Yards: +365

Those numbers are absolutely on the Sunday watch list.

Emeka Egbuka +160

Cleveland just gave up four passing touchdowns.

Tampa should have opportunities through the air.

The price isn’t huge, but the matchup makes sense.

Early Rating: CORE

Kyle Monangai +170

This could become one of the most interesting plays on the board.

The problem?

We need more injury information.

If D’Andre Swift is limited or compromised heading into Sunday, Monangai could see a significant increase in opportunity.

For now:

WAIT FOR THE INJURY REPORT

Dallas Goedert +215

Can he score every week?

Probably not.

But at better than 2:1, I’m still interested.

The only reason I’m not higher on this is the overall game environment.

Philadelphia vs Tennessee ranked near the bottom of our Week 2 board.

Good player.

Okay price.

Not a game I want to overload.

Early Rating: SECONDARY

Bhayshul Tuten +220

This one is growing on me.

Denver just got run over.

Tuten saw legitimate Week 1 volume.

And +220 gives us a much better multiplier than some of the obvious touchdown favorites.

Early Rating: STRONG VALUE

Trevor Lawrence +350

This is more of a moonshot.

But we just watched Patrick Mahomes run one in against Denver.

If Jacksonville gets near the goal line and coverage takes away the first read, Lawrence has the ability to keep it himself.

At +350, that becomes interesting.

Early Rating: MOONSHOT

Isaiah Likely +260

Likely had a huge Week 1.

That means the Rams will obviously be paying attention to him.

But +260 is still a strong enough number to keep him in the pool.

He’s quickly becoming one of the more dangerous pieces in that offense.

Early Rating: STRONG VALUE

WHAT HAPPENED TO TET McMILLAN?

This was one I wanted to dig into.

At first glance, it felt like Tet disappeared while Jalen Coker went off.

That wasn’t really the case.

Tet still saw eight targets and finished with 75 yards.

Coker simply had the monster game.

That brings us right back to one of our Week 2 themes:

Don’t confuse touchdowns with opportunity.

Tet still had volume.

The issue this week is the matchup.

Atlanta has better corners than Chicago, and at +185 I don’t think we’re getting enough of a premium to force it.

For now:

PASS

EARLY RECEIVING YARDAGE TARGETS

The full Week 2 alternate-yardage menu isn’t available yet.

That’s where we usually find some of our biggest multipliers.

But a few early numbers already stand out.

Mike Gesicki

If Joe Burrow is healthy, this is interesting.

Houston just got hurt badly by Buffalo’s tight ends.

Gesicki also had a strong Week 1.

40+ Receiving Yards: +240

50+ Receiving Yards: +415

Definitely on the Sunday watch list.

Javonte Williams

This is exactly the kind of weird market I love.

His standard number is only around 13 yards.

He had 31 receiving yards in Week 1.

And he’s operating as the clear lead back.

15+ Receiving Yards: +119

25+ Receiving Yards: +312

And then there’s the ridiculous one:

40+ Receiving Yards: +950

You already know I’m looking at that one.

MIAMI LONG SHOTS

Malik Willis Anytime TD +280

Vegas is starting to catch on.

He’s one of Miami’s biggest rushing threats.

The problem is that Miami vs San Francisco ranked near the bottom of our Week 2 Game Board.

So this isn’t something I want heavy exposure to.

But at +280?

It can absolutely make its way onto a smaller ticket.

Malik Washington / Caleb Douglas anytime td +475

Both are interesting strictly because of the price.

The target volume was there in Week 1.

But again, this is not a game environment we want to force.

These belong in the:

$1 and $2 moonshot pile.

WHAT WE’RE ACTUALLY DOING TONIGHT

We’re not building the entire $200 card on Thursday.

That defeats the purpose.

The goal is to get a little exposure to our highest-ranked game while keeping almost the entire bankroll available for Sunday.

Early Thursday Ideas

Kincaid TD +180

Shakir TD +225

Kincaid 80+ Receiving +249

LaPorta TD +225

And potentially one Shakir receiving ladder on a smaller ticket.

That’s enough.

Then we wait.

THE SUNDAY WATCH LIST

The players I’m most interested in revisiting once we get final injury reports and the full alternate-yardage markets:

Justin Jefferson

T.J. Hockenson

Emeka Egbuka

Bhayshul Tuten

Kalif Raymond

Mike Gesicki

Javonte Williams receiving ladders

Kyle Monangai if Swift is limited

And whatever new +300 to +1000 yardage ladders appear in the games we already identified as the best scoring environments.

There will be more.

There always is.

The key is not forcing the card on Thursday.

Use Thursday. Don’t marry Thursday.

The full Week 2 Nicks Picks card comes Sunday.