Nicks Picks Week 3: The Top 10 + Our $100 Card

Week 3 is here.

And we're changing things up.

Last week, we took it on the chin. Oh well. That's gambling. We learn, adjust and keep going.

But we also learned something else.

48 slips is insane.

Even I don't want to sit there entering 48 different parlays into DraftKings every Sunday morning. And if I'm asking you guys to follow along, this needs to be easier.

So we're simplifying Nicks Picks.

10 picks.
7 slips.
$100 total.

That's it.

Same philosophy. Same hunt for value. Same opportunity for ridiculous payouts.

Just a hell of a lot easier to play.

THE WEEK 3 PHILOSOPHY

This week has been harder than usual.

The books have caught up to a lot of the receiving-yard guys we normally like.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is a perfect example. Of course he can have a monster game. But if I need him to get all the way to 120 receiving yards just to get somewhere around +200, where's the value?

That's not what we're looking for.

We're not trying to pick good players. We're trying to find mispriced outcomes.

And this week, the value seems to be coming from three places:

Anytime touchdowns.
Tight ends.
Running back receiving yards.

So instead of forcing WR ladders onto the card, we're going where the numbers take us.

GAMES WE'RE TARGETING

Texans vs. Colts

This is the game producing our favorite player of the week.

Dalton Schultz.

Schultz is coming off a monster Week 2, Nico Collins is out, and now we're getting Schultz at +200 to score and +307 for 80+ receiving yards.

The number still feels behind the opportunity.

We're attacking it twice.

Lions vs. Jets

I'm not interested in paying the premium on Detroit's obvious receiving-yard plays.

Instead, give me Sam LaPorta to score at +205.

Simple.

We know Detroit can score. We know LaPorta is a legitimate red-zone weapon. And we don't need him to pile up 80 or 100 yards to cash.

Chargers vs. Bills

This remains one of the games we're willing to attack.

The interesting part is that we found three different TD prices:

Ladd McConkey +220
Oronde Gadsden II +255
Quentin Johnston +300

We're not saying all three need to score.

We're saying the market is giving us multiple ways to attack a game environment we like, and we'll spread those players across different slips.

Browns vs. Panthers

There are two angles I like here.

Harold Fannin Jr. TD +260

and

Quinshon Judkins 25+ receiving yards +252

Again, look at the thresholds.

We're not asking Judkins to go for 100 receiving yards.

We need 25.

And they're giving us +252.

That's the kind of number that gets my attention.

Chiefs vs. Dolphins

Here's our weird one.

Emmett Johnson.

I went back and forth on him.

If Kansas City controls this game, are they really going to need to push the ball downfield all afternoon?

Maybe not.

But that might actually create the type of environment where a running back can quietly accumulate receiving yards underneath.

And the prices are wild:

25+ receiving yards: +354
40+ receiving yards: +1080

That's interesting.

Very interesting.

THE NICKS PICKS TOP 10

1. Dalton Schultz 80+ Receiving Yards — +307

Favorite pick of the week.

We don't need to overthink this.

The role is there. The opportunity is there. The matchup is there.

And we're still getting better than 3 to 1.

🔥 CORE PLAY

2. Dalton Schultz Anytime TD — +200

Yep.

Schultz gets two spots.

Why?

Because the Top 10 isn't supposed to be ten different players just for the sake of having ten different names.

It's the ten bets we want to make.

If Schultz is our strongest thesis of the week, we're attacking it two different ways.

🔥 CORE PLAY

3. Sam LaPorta Anytime TD — +205

Rather than chase an inflated Detroit receiving ladder, let's keep it simple.

LaPorta scores.

At +205, there's enough juice to make him a foundational piece of the card.

🔥 CORE PLAY

4. Ladd McConkey Anytime TD — +220

Our favorite TD target from Chargers vs. Bills.

There are several ways into this game, but Ladd gets the top spot.

🔥 CORE PLAY

5. Harold Fannin Jr. Anytime TD — +260

This is where we start getting into the meat of Nicks Picks.

We're not chasing the most obvious touchdown scorer on the board at -110.

We're looking for legitimate scoring opportunities at numbers that can multiply a parlay quickly.

+260 will do.

🎯 VALUE PLAY

6. Oronde Gadsden II Anytime TD — +255

Our second Chargers target.

Again, this doesn't mean we're betting Ladd and Gadsden together every time.

It gives us multiple ways to build around a game we like.

🎯 VALUE PLAY

7. Emmett Johnson 25+ Receiving Yards — +354

This might be the strangest number on the board.

Twenty-five yards.

That's it.

And DraftKings is offering +354.

We're taking a shot.

🎯 VALUE PLAY

8. Quinshon Judkins 25+ Receiving Yards — +252

Same philosophy.

We're finding running backs with low receiving thresholds where the payout still gives us something meaningful.

Judkins doesn't need a receiving explosion.

He needs 25 yards.

🎯 VALUE PLAY

9. Quentin Johnston Anytime TD — +300

QJ becomes our higher-paying way into the Chargers game.

We're getting 3 to 1 on the touchdown.

That makes him especially useful once we get into the smaller wagers and larger payout tickets.

🚀 LONGSHOT VALUE

10. Emmett Johnson 40+ Receiving Yards — +1080

And here's the bomb.

If we like Emmett 25+, we at least have to look at what they're offering farther up the ladder.

Going from 25 yards to 40 yards takes us from:

+354 → +1080

That's nuts.

Do I want $30 riding on it?

Absolutely not.

Do I want it buried inside a $4 moonshot that could go nuclear?

Absolutely.

🌙 MOONSHOT

THE $100 WEEK 3 CARD

This is the other major change.

We're not building 48 slips.

We're building seven.

Three more attainable tickets get most of the bankroll.

Then we progressively reduce the wager as the number of legs and potential payout increase.

Let's go.

💰 $30 — THE BEST SHOT

Dalton Schultz TD +200
Sam LaPorta TD +205
Ladd McConkey TD +220

Our three favorite TD plays.

No reason to get cute.

$30 → Approx. $878 return*

💰 $15 — THE VALUE 3

Dalton Schultz 80+ +307
Harold Fannin Jr. TD +260
Emmett Johnson 25+ receiving +354

This might be my favorite slip from a pure Nicks Picks perspective.

Three legs.

Every leg is +260 or better.

And none of them requires something completely absurd to happen.

$15 → Approx. $998 return*

💰 $15 — TD + RB VALUE

Dalton Schultz TD +200
Oronde Gadsden II TD +255
Quinshon Judkins 25+ receiving +252

This is our smallest projected payout.

That's okay.

Not every ticket needs to pay five figures.

$15 → Approx. $562 return*

NOW WE TURN IT UP…

🚀 $15 — THE 4 LEG

Sam LaPorta TD +205
Harold Fannin Jr. TD +260
Quentin Johnston TD +300
Emmett Johnson 25+ receiving +354

Four plus-money outcomes.

Nothing individually ridiculous.

Put them together?

Now we're cooking.

$15 → Approx. $2,991 return*

🚀 $15 — THE OTHER 4

Dalton Schultz 80+ +307
Ladd McConkey TD +220
Quinshon Judkins 25+ receiving +252
Oronde Gadsden II TD +255

This is one place where we're intentionally doubling up on Chargers TD scorers.

If the Chargers put multiple touchdowns through the air, we want a piece of it.

$15 → Approx. $2,441 return*

💣 $6 — THE LONGSHOT

Dalton Schultz TD +200
Sam LaPorta TD +205
Oronde Gadsden II TD +255
Harold Fannin Jr. TD +260
Emmett Johnson 25+ receiving +354

Five legs.

But here's what I like:

There's no random +1000 touchdown scorer thrown in just to make the payout look cool.

These are five bets that made our actual Top 10.

We're simply stacking our opinions.

$6 → Approx. $3,185 return*

🌙 $4 — THE MOONSHOT

Here we go.

Dalton Schultz 80+ +307
Sam LaPorta TD +205
Quentin Johnston TD +300
Harold Fannin Jr. TD +260
Quinshon Judkins 25+ receiving +252
Emmett Johnson 40+ receiving +1080

And there's our Emmett bomb.

If we're right about that receiving role...

If Schultz stays hot...

If our TD targets hit...

Things get stupid.

$4 → Theoretical return around $29,699.*

😂😂😂

Four bucks.

Why the hell not?

THE NEW NICKS PICKS

This feels much better.

You don't need to sit on DraftKings for an hour entering 48 different combinations.

You don't need a spreadsheet open while watching football.

You don't need to remember which one of your 17 six-leggers had a particular player.

10 picks.
7 slips.
$100.

And there's a purpose behind every level of the card.

$30: Our best shot.

$15: Where we're hunting real value and meaningful payouts.

$6: Let's swing.

$4: Let's try to break DraftKings.

That's Week 3.

Small bets. Big wins. Hidden value.

Let's ride.