NICKS PICKS: WEEK 4

Alright. Let’s Actually Hit Something.

We’re 0–3.

There. I said it.

Three weeks into the season and we have officially taken it on the chin.

Have we been close? Yep.

Have we had parlays die by one leg? Of course.

Does any of that count?

Absolutely not.

0–3 is 0–3.

So we’re not coming into Week 4 trying to pretend everything is great. We’re adjusting.

And the biggest adjustment this week is simple:

STOP FORCING VALUE THAT ISN’T THERE.

The books have caught up.

A lot of the receiving ladders I normally love are absolutely juiced. Want 100 yards from a legitimate WR1? Congratulations, here’s +200.

Thanks, DraftKings.

So instead of building a giant board and convincing ourselves every game has an opportunity, we narrowed this thing down.

There are a handful of players and game environments I really like.

And then there’s Kenyon Sadiq.

More on him in a second.

🔥 WHAT WE’RE TARGETING

There are four primary areas I want exposure to this week:

BUFFALO

I think Buffalo can beat the hell out of New England.

The Patriots are also without CB Christian Gonzalez this week.

That has me looking heavily at:

Dalton Kincaid
Khalil Shakir
Keon Coleman

Both touchdowns and receiving ladders are in play.

If Buffalo puts up a big number, I want our tickets attached to it.

DALLAS

This was one of the better passing matchups on our game board.

So I'm going back to:

CeeDee Lamb
Jake Ferguson

Ferguson in particular gives us something we haven't found much this week:

lower receiving thresholds at plus money.

That's valuable.

TETAIROA McMILLAN

I keep coming back here.

We liked the Carolina passing matchup before we ever looked at the props.

So we're attacking it.

McMillan Anytime TD +115

and

McMillan 100+ Receiving +208

are both on the board.

KENYON SADIQ

Here's the fun one.

Sadiq exploded last week for 7 catches, 105 yards and a touchdown on 8 targets.

And DraftKings is giving us:

60+ Receiving — +204

or...

90+ Receiving — +780

👀

THAT is the type of number I'm looking for.

We don't need every player on the board to have crazy value.

We need a few.

And +780 for a guy who just went over 100 gives us an incredibly useful building block for our bombs.

🎯 THE $10 TICKETS

The goal with these is simple:

$10 → $1,000+

We're not trying to build 12-leg miracles.

We're trying to find combinations where four or five outcomes can create a four-figure payout.

TICKET #1 — SADIQ + ERTZ

Sadiq 60+ Receiving +204
Zach Ertz 40+ Receiving +262
Jake Ferguson 40+ Receiving +239
McMillan Anytime TD +115
Kenneth Walker Anytime TD -160

TARGET PAYOUT: $1,000+

I like the construction here.

We're using three receiving numbers we don't think are completely insane, then finishing it with two TD scorers.

TICKET #2 — RECEIVING STUDS

Sadiq 60+ +204
Puka Nacua 100+ +249
McMillan 100+ +208
Brock Bowers TD +155
Kenneth Walker TD -160

TARGET PAYOUT: $1,000+

We're asking the three receiving guys to have legitimately big games.

If they do, Bowers and Walker bring it home.

TICKET #3 — BUFFALO TD ATTACK

Dalton Kincaid TD +180
Khalil Shakir TD +240
McMillan TD +115
Malik Nabers TD +195
Brock Bowers TD +155

TARGET PAYOUT: $1,000+

No yardage.

No messing around.

Five guys.

Find the end zone.

TICKET #4 — BUFFALO YARDAGE NUKE

Dalton Kincaid 90+ +567
Khalil Shakir 70+ +426
Kenneth Walker TD -160
Brock Bowers TD +155

TARGET PAYOUT: $1,000+

This might be one of my favorite tickets.

Why?

FOUR LEGS.

If Buffalo has the offensive game we're expecting, Kincaid and Shakir can do most of the heavy lifting.

TICKET #5 — DALLAS NUKE

CeeDee Lamb 100+ +206
Jake Ferguson 40+ +239
Ferguson TD +330
Kenneth Walker TD -160
Brock Bowers TD +155

TARGET PAYOUT: $1,000+

This is our Dallas thesis in one ticket.

CeeDee eats.

Ferguson gets involved.

Ferguson finds the end zone.

Then Walker and Bowers finish it.

TICKET #6 — THE SADIQ CEILING

Sadiq 90+ +780
Ertz 40+ +262
McMillan TD +115
Bowers TD +155

TARGET PAYOUT: $1,000+

FOUR LEGS.

This is exactly why I love the Sadiq number.

If he gets us 90 yards, suddenly we don't need seven other things to happen to create a big payout.

TICKET #7 — THREE 100s

Puka Nacua 100+ +249
McMillan 100+ +208
CeeDee Lamb 100+ +206
Kenneth Walker TD -160
Brock Bowers TD +155

TARGET PAYOUT: $1,000+

Simple.

Three monster receiving performances.

Two touchdowns.

We're either going to know pretty quickly that this ticket is alive...

or it's going directly into the trash.

TICKET #8 — TENNESSEE BOMBS

Carnell Tate 80+ +433
Elic Ayomanor 50+ +483
Kincaid TD +180
Kenneth Walker TD -160

TARGET PAYOUT: $1,000+

Now we're getting weird.

But again...

FOUR LEGS.

That's what I like.

TICKET #9 — BUFFALO DEEP BOMB

Keon Coleman 40+ +522
Ty Johnson 25+ +241
Shakir TD +240
Bowers TD +155

TARGET PAYOUT: $1,000+

If Buffalo goes nuts, we want multiple ways to cash in on it.

This is one of them.

TICKET #10 — DALLAS + LONGSHOTS

Xavier Hutchinson 60+ +432
Ferguson TD +330
Juwan Johnson TD +245
Kenneth Walker TD -160

TARGET PAYOUT: $1,000+

This is definitely farther down the confidence board.

But that's okay.

We're not betting every ticket like it's equally likely.

💣 NOW FOR THE $5 BOMBS

This is the fun part.

The assignment:

$5 → $5,000+

We're looking for approximately 1,000x returns.

These aren't supposed to hit often.

They're supposed to make Sunday VERY interesting if we get the first few legs home.

💣 BOMB #1 — THE SADIQ SPECIAL

Sadiq 90+ +780
Kincaid 90+ +567
Shakir 70+ +426
Puka 100+ +249

$5 → TARGET $5,000+

Four legs.

That's it.

This is probably my favorite bomb on the board.

If Sadiq has another monster game and Buffalo does what we think Buffalo can do...

👀👀👀

💣 BOMB #2 — SADIQ + ERTZ

Sadiq 90+ +780
Ertz 50+ +441
Ferguson 40+ +239
CeeDee 100+ +206
McMillan TD +115

$5 → TARGET $5,000+

Someone has to catch the football.

We're betting on opportunity and volume.

💣 BOMB #3 — BUFFALO EXPLOSION

Kincaid 90+ +567
Shakir 70+ +426
Keon Coleman 40+ +522
Ferguson TD +330
Kenneth Walker TD -160

$5 → TARGET $5,000+

The thesis:

BUFFALO SMASHES.

If we're right, three legs can start falling in the same game.

Then we need Ferguson and Walker to finish the job.

💣 BOMB #4 — SADIQ + TD HUNTERS

Sadiq 90+ +780
Kincaid TD +180
Shakir TD +240
Ferguson TD +330
Juwan Johnson TD +245

$5 → TARGET $5,000+

One receiving ceiling.

Four touchdowns.

Absolute chaos.

Exactly what a $5 ticket should look like.

☢️ BOMB #5 — PURE CHAOS

Carnell Tate 80+ +433
Elic Ayomanor 50+ +483
Xavier Hutchinson 60+ +432
Puka 100+ +249
Bowers TD +155

$5 → TARGET $5,000+

Do I expect this to hit?

No.

Would I enjoy watching a $5 ticket suddenly turn into thousands of dollars if Tate and Ayomanor get there early?

Absolutely.

That's the point.

⭐ MY FAVORITES

If you're not playing everything and just want the tickets I personally like the most:

$10 Buffalo Yardage Nuke

$10 Sadiq Ceiling

$10 Dallas Nuke

And for the bombs:

$5 Sadiq Special

That's where I'm starting.

WEEK 4 recap

We're 0–3.

No hiding from it.

But we're also not responding by doubling everything, chasing losses or suddenly betting every player on the board.

We're doing the opposite.

Smaller board.

Better numbers.

Fewer legs.

Big upside.

And one rule I've learned from the first three weeks:

Once the payout gets where we want it...

STOP ADDING LEGS.

We don't need a $5 bet to pay $75,000.

We need it to hit.

Let's get on the damn board.

WEEK 4. LET'S RIDE.

Odds shown are the prices available when the board was built and can move before kickoff. Same-game combinations may also be repriced by the sportsbook. Check the final ticket before placing. Parlays are high variance. Bet only what you're comfortable losing.